Aston Villa Predictions

Today's game between Aston Villa and West Ham is a good demonstration of how hard it is to be a decent football prognosticator.

Villa won today's game, with much of the credit due to their two new fine forwards, John Carew and Ashley Young. In my February 1 entry, I predicted that Carew was the steal of the transfer season, and today he proved me right with a fine goal. In my January 25 entry, however, I was critical of Martin O'Neill for spending to much on Ashley Young; I didn't think he was worth the money, but today he looked very much like he was.

Now of course I understand that transfers are not justified (or depreciated) in a day; we will have to watch Villa the rest of the season to see how both these moves play out. But there is not doubt that football predictors are little more than professional guessers, and in my case, at least, I'm lucky that I can even go fifty-fifty with some of my thoughts.

Overall, of course, I am way below fifty-fifty (Ronaldo going to the Red Bulls and Beckham staying at Madrid spring immediately to mind) so I fully expect to being wrong all the time by next week.

Transfer Window Slams Shut

Last night marked the end of the January transfer window, a sad time for football fans who like wheeling-and-dealing as much as the sport itself, much as some baseball fans live for the hot stove.

So where there any deals that will affect the races? I think so, although we may not know for a while which ones will be the most important. As I’ve said, I think Ronaldo will help Milan. I also think Javier Mascherano could make a real impact with Liverpool, if he is allowed to go. (Ultimately he could be a better player in the premiership than Tevez, I think.)

All this being said, I think the best transfer deal made in January might be Martin O’Neill bring John Carew to Aston Villa from Lyon. Carew, to me, is a tough, strong forward who will fit in perfectly with the physical style of the premiership. He also knows how to win (presumably everybody on Lyon does; they do enough of it) and will bring that attitude with him to Villa Park.

I have written before that I think O’Neill overpaid for Ashley Young; I don’t know what he paid for Carew (the sum was undisclosed, but word is he got him on the cheap) but it seems as if he mad up for his earlier, free-spending ways. O’Neill has already proven to many people that he is one of the brightest minds in the premiership, and I think picking up Carew will, in the long term, make Villa a force in the league, something it hasn’t been for a long, long time.

There are good articles on the transfer window at ESPN: http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=406055&root=england&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1&cc=5901

And CNNSI:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/gabriele_marcotti/02/01/transfer.shakeout/index.html

Transfer News

Just a couple of quick thoughts about the transfer market today…

• It seems that it’s becoming a certainty that Ronaldo will be transferred to AC Milan in the next day or so. Good for big Ronnie, who as I’ve said before deserves to be on a big stage, and good for Milan for not overpaying. The numbers being reported right now are still sketchy, but it looks as if Milan will pay about 8 million dollars for the transfer, a number that is staggeringly smaller than the 28 million they offered for the player this past fall. One could argue that the new price is a testament to Milan’s negotiating savvy, but it must also be acknowledged that Madrid has acted like armatures the entire time. It seems, in retrospect, that Capello never wanted Ronaldo as a player, which is fine. But to turn down a 30 million dollar offer, only to put the player on the bench and see his value decline dramatically, is absurd and reeks of inexperience. Madrid President Calderon’s insistence on getting midfielder Kaká in the original deal was not only stupid (since it was never going to happen) but also very hurtful to his own club in the long run. In a just world he would probably fire himself form his job; somehow I don’t think that’s going to happen.

• Another piece of transfer news that I found surprising was Ashley Young’s ₤8 million sale from Watford to Aston Villa, a number that could rise up to £10 million with incentives. Young, who was a backup at Watford, and who is definitely a “prospect,” hopes to have a steady starting job under Martin O’Neil. The outrageous sum Villa paid, in my mind, is related to the effect that Andriy Shevchenko has had on English football. Shevchenko, who last year at this time was still considered one of the best strikers in the world, has been a qualified failure at Chelsea, in spite of his two goals in a cup match the other night. This seems to have crystallized the fear in many English manager that foreigners simply cannot adapt to the ‘English’ game, or at least not adapt fast enough for the manager not to get fired. Thus they are over-paying for home-grown English talent, even when that talent is of the very mediocre variety. I suspect that this will not help the English game in the long run, and will eventually reward those still willing to take a gamble on a player born outside the merry realm.