Today's game between Aston Villa and West Ham is a good demonstration of how hard it is to be a decent football prognosticator.
Villa won today's game, with much of the credit due to their two new fine forwards, John Carew and Ashley Young. In my February 1 entry, I predicted that Carew was the steal of the transfer season, and today he proved me right with a fine goal. In my January 25 entry, however, I was critical of Martin O'Neill for spending to much on Ashley Young; I didn't think he was worth the money, but today he looked very much like he was.
Now of course I understand that transfers are not justified (or depreciated) in a day; we will have to watch Villa the rest of the season to see how both these moves play out. But there is not doubt that football predictors are little more than professional guessers, and in my case, at least, I'm lucky that I can even go fifty-fifty with some of my thoughts.
Overall, of course, I am way below fifty-fifty (Ronaldo going to the Red Bulls and Beckham staying at Madrid spring immediately to mind) so I fully expect to being wrong all the time by next week.